Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer incidence is rising in the United Kingdom but there is little data on whether the disease profile is changing. To address this, we interrogated a regional cancer registry for temporal changes in presenting disease characteristics. METHODS: Prostate cancers diagnosed from 2000 to 2010 in the Anglian Cancer Network (n=21,044) were analysed. Risk groups (localised disease) were assigned based on NICE criteria. Age standardised incidence rates (IRs) were compared between 2000-2005 and 2006-2010 and plotted for yearly trends. RESULTS: Over the decade, overall IR increased significantly (P<0.00001), whereas metastasis rates fell (P<0.0007). For localised disease, IR across all risk groups also increased but at different rates (P<0.00001). The most striking change was a three-fold increase in intermediate-risk cancers. Increased IR was evident across all PSA and stage ranges but with no upward PSA or stage shift. In contrast, IR of histological diagnosis of low-grade cancers fell over the decade, whereas intermediate and high-grade diagnosis increased significantly (P<0.00001). CONCLUSION: This study suggests evidence of a significant upward migration in intermediate and high-grade histological diagnosis over the decade. This is most likely to be due to a change in histological reporting of diagnostic prostate biopsies. On the basis of this data, increasing proportions of newly diagnosed cancers will be considered eligible for radical treatment, which will have an impact on health resource planning and provision.