Abstract
Land-use change exerts a profound influence on ecosystem services (ES), and accurately assessing its spatiotemporal dynamics is essential for achieving regional sustainability. Taking Shandong Province as a case study, this research integrates the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate the impacts of land-use changes on carbon storage and habitat quality in Shandong Province between 2000 and 2020, and to project their dynamics under different scenarios for 2030. The InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model was employed to reassess variations in carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). The main findings are as follows: (1) Cultivated land decreased by 12.3%, while construction land expanded by 51.04%, predominantly replacing farmland and forested areas, resulting in a distinct spatial pattern characterized by an "urbanized east and agricultural west." (2) Carbon storage declined by approximately 63 million tons, primarily due to urban expansion. (3) Habitat quality experienced a 3.6% decrease, with significant ecological fragmentation identified in the central mountainous regions and the Yellow River Delta, driven by intensified urbanization and agricultural activities. (4) Future scenario simulations indicate that under the ecological conservation scenario, carbon storage could increase by 12.5% and habitat quality could reach 0.572 by 2040; in contrast, the natural development scenario suggests ongoing degradation. These findings highlight the trade-offs between land development and ecosystem services, emphasizing the necessity of reinforcing ecological zoning, compensation mechanisms, and the establishment of ecological corridors. This study provides a scientific basis for advancing sustainable land-use planning and ecosystem management.