Abstract
BACKGROUND: Several blood biomarkers have been related to the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D); however, their predictive value has seldom been assessed using data mining algorithms. METHODS: This cohort study was conducted on 9704 participants recruited from the Mashhad Stroke and Heart Atherosclerotic disorders (MASHAD) study from 2010 to 2020. Individuals who were not between the ages of 35 and 65 were excluded. Serum levels of biochemical factors such as creatinine (Cr), high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP), Uric acid, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), direct and total bilirubin (BIL.D, BIL.T), lipid profile, besides body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), blood pressure, and age were evaluated through Logistic Regression (LR) and Decision Tree (DT) methods to develop a predicting model for T2D. RESULTS: The comparison between diabetic and non-diabetic participants represented higher levels of triglyceride (TG), LDL, cholesterol, ALT, BIL.D, and Uric acid in diabetic cases (p-value < 0.05). The LR model indicated a significant association between TG, Uric acid, and hs-CRP, besides age, sex, WC, and blood pressure, hypertension and dyslipidemia history with T2D development. DT algorithm demonstrated dyslipidemia history as the most determining factor in T2D prediction, followed by age, hypertension history, Uric acid, and TG. CONCLUSION: There was a significant association between hypertension and dyslipidemia history, TG, Uric acid, and hs-CRP with T2D development, along with age, WC, and blood pressure through the LR and DT methods.