Abstract
BACKGROUND: Driver-based chronic disease models address the public health challenge of cardiometabolic risk. However, there is no data available about the novel Hypertension-Based Chronic Disease (HBCD) model. This study investigates the prevalence, characteristics, and prognostic significance of HBCD Stages in a primary care cohort. METHODS: This study included participants aged ≥45 years, randomly selected from the primary care program of a Brazilian medium-sized city. Participants underwent electrocardiogram, tissue Doppler echocardiogram and were followed for a median of 6 years. Participants were classified into HBCD Stages as follows: Stage 1: hypertension risk factors; Stage 2: pre-hypertension; Stage 3: hypertension; and Stage 4: hypertension complications. RESULTS: Overall, 633 participants were included in the cross-sectional analysis and 560 that had follow-up data were included in the prognostic analysis. From 633 participants, 1.3% had no identifiable risk factors for HBCD, 10.0% were Stage 1, 14.7% Stage 2, 51.5% Stage 3, and 22.5% Stage 4. Increasing HBCD stages had worse glomerular filtration rates, echocardiographic markers, and higher body mass index, waist circumference, blood glucose levels, and prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Rates of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization increased across HBCD Stages: Stage 1: 3.6%; Stage 2: 4.8%, Stage 3: 7.6%; and Stage 4: 39.5%. Kaplan-Meier curves showed composite outcome worsened across HBCD Stages 1-4 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HBCD is a conceptually and prognostically valid model. Remarkably, HBCD stages were associated with progressively worsening markers of heart disease, declining kidney function and higher rates of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization.