Abstract
Anopheles stephensi invasion in the Horn of Africa (HoA) poses a substantial risk of increased malaria disease burden in the region. An understanding of the history of introduction(s), establishment(s) and potential A. stephensi sources in the HoA is needed to predict future expansions and establish where they may be effectively controlled. To this end, we take a landscape genomic approach to assess A. stephensi origins and spread throughout the HoA, information essential for vector control. Specifically, we assayed 2070 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms across 214 samples spanning 13 populations of A. stephensi from Ethiopia and Somaliland collected in 2018 and 2020, respectively. Principal component and genetic ancestry analyses revealed clustering that followed an isolation-by-distance pattern, with genetic divergence among the Ethiopian samples significantly correlating with geographical distance. Additionally, genetic relatedness was observed between the northeastern and east central Ethiopian A. stephensi populations and the Somaliland A. stephensi populations. These results reveal population differentiation and genetic connectivity within HoA A. stephensi populations. Furthermore, based on genetic network analysis, we uncovered that Dire Dawa, the site of a spring 2022 malaria outbreak, was one of the major hubs from which sequential founder events occurred in the rest of the eastern Ethiopian region. These findings can be useful for the selection of sites for heightened control to prevent future malaria outbreaks. Finally, we did not detect significant genotype-environmental associations, potentially due to the recency of their colonization and/or other anthropogenic factors leading to the initial spread and establishment of A. stephensi. Our study highlights how coupling genomic data at landscape levels can shed light into even ongoing invasions.