Abstract
BACKGRUOUND: Bone fracture risk assessment for osteoporotic patients is essential for implementing early countermeasures and preventing discomfort and hospitalization. Current methodologies, such as Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), provide a risk assessment over a 5- to 10-year period rather than evaluating the bone's current health status. METHODS: The database was collected by Ajou University Medical Center from 2017 to 2021. It included 9,260 patients, aged 55 to 99, comprising 242 femur fracture (FX) cases and 9,018 non-fracture (NFX) cases. To model the association of the bone's current health status with prevalent FXs, three prediction algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGB), support vector machine, and multilayer perceptron-were trained using two-dimensional dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (2D-DXA) analysis results and subsequently benchmarked. The XGB classifier, which proved most effective, was then further refined using synthetic data generated by the adaptive synthetic oversampler to balance the FX and NFX classes and enhance boundary sharpness for better classification accuracy. RESULTS: The XGB model trained on raw data demonstrated good prediction capabilities, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 and an F1 score of 0.71 on test cases. The inclusion of synthetic data improved classification accuracy in terms of both specificity and sensitivity, resulting in an AUC of 0.99 and an F1 score of 0.98. CONCLUSION: The proposed methodology demonstrates that current bone health can be assessed through post-processed results from 2D-DXA analysis. Moreover, it was also shown that synthetic data can help stabilize uneven databases by balancing majority and minority classes, thereby significantly improving classification performance.