Abstract
The aims of this multicenter study were to identify clinical and preoperative PET/CT parameters predicting overall survival (OS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in a cohort of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with surgery, to generate a prognostic model of OS and DMFS, and to validate this prognostic model with an independent cohort. Methods: A total of 382 consecutive patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, divided into training (n = 318) and validation (n = 64) cohorts, were retrospectively included. The following PET/CT parameters were analyzed: clinical parameters, SUV(max), SUV(mean), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis, and distance parameters for the primary tumor and lymph nodes defined by 2 segmentation methods (relative SUV(max) threshold and absolute SUV threshold). Cox analyses were performed for OS and DMFS in the training cohort. The concordance index (c-index) was used to identify highly prognostic parameters. These prognostic parameters were externally tested in the validation cohort. Results: In multivariable analysis, the significant parameters for OS were T stage and nodal MTV, with a c-index of 0.64 (P < 0.001). For DMFS, the significant parameters were T stage, nodal MTV, and maximal tumor-node distance, with a c-index of 0.76 (P < 0.001). These combinations of parameters were externally validated, with c-indices of 0.63 (P < 0.001) and 0.71 (P < 0.001) for OS and DMFS, respectively. Conclusion: The nodal MTV associated with the maximal tumor-node distance was significantly correlated with the risk of DMFS. Moreover, this parameter, in addition to clinical parameters, was associated with a higher risk of death. These prognostic factors may be used to tailor individualized treatment.