Abstract
This study identified the most accurate model for predicting longitudinal craniofacial growth in a Japanese population using statistical methods and machine learning. Longitudinal lateral cephalometric radiographs were collected from 59 children (27 boys and 32 girls) with no history of orthodontic treatment. Multiple regression analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, radial basis function network, multilayer perceptron, and gradient-boosted decision tree were used. The independent variables included 26 coordinated values of skeletal landmarks, 13 linear skeletal parameters, and 17 angular skeletal parameters in children ages 6 to 12 years. The dependent variables were the values of the 26 coordinated skeletal landmarks, 13 skeletal linear parameters, and 17 skeletal angular parameters at 13 years of age. The difference between the predicted and actual measured values was calculated using the root-mean-square error. The prediction model for craniofacial growth using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator had the smallest average error for all values of skeletal landmarks, linear parameters, and angular parameters. The highest prediction accuracies when predicting skeletal linear and angular parameters for 13-year-olds were 97.87% and 94.45%, respectively. This model incorporates several independent variables and is useful for future orthodontic treatment because it can predict individual growth.