Abstract
PURPOSE: The aims of this prospective study were to evaluate whether time-lapse parameters can aid in the prediction of day 5 embryo quality and also to assess their discriminatory capacity. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we used time-lapse technology to record specific timings of key events for 380 day 5 blastocysts (originating from 108 patients). Generalized estimating equation regression models were used to evaluate the capacity of these markers to identify a top-quality blastocyst. Multivariable regression models were also constructed, aiming to identify the model with the highest capacity to predict a top-quality blastocyst. The discriminatory capacity of single predictors or composite models was assessed with the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. RESULTS: Eight significant predictive parameters of a top-quality blastocyst were identified: s3, t6, t7, t8, tM, tSB, tB and tEB. A ROC analysis of the identified parameters found s3 (area under the curve--AUC 0.585, 95 % CI 0.534-0.635) to have the best individual discriminatory capacity to predict a top-quality blastocyst prior to embryo compaction. The parameter tEB (AUC 0.727, 95 % CI 0.675-0.775) was the best predictor regardless of embryo stage. A model containing s3, t8 and tEB showed a slightly increased discriminatory capacity for top-quality blastocyst prediction (AUC 0.748, 95 % CI 0.697-0.794). CONCLUSIONS: The identified morphokinetic parameters and their cutoffs, albeit of limited clinical value, add to the increasing knowledge concerning the potential predictive markers of a top-quality blastocyst. Additional evidence is necessary before validated time-lapse parameters can be used for embryo selection in IVF laboratories.