Abstract
While PD-1/L1 inhibitors are characterized by durable tumor control, they also prolong survival without prolongation of progression-free survival (PFS) in part of patients. However, little is known about the factors and mechanisms involved in this. Between December 2015 and September 2018, 106 patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with ICI monotherapy were enrolled in a prospective-observational study. Sixty-nine of whom progressed or died within 6 months after ICI initiation were defined as patients without durable clinical benefit (NDBs). Clinical factors and 39 serum proteins before ICI initiation and at the time of progressive disease (PD) were explored for an association with overall survival (OS) and OS after PD (OS-PD). As a result, median PFS, OS, and OS-PD were 44 days [95% confidence interval (CI): 39-56), 211 days (95% CI: 158-425), and 193 days (95% CI: 118-349), respectively. By multivariate analysis for OS, CRP (> 1.44 mg/dl) [HR 2.59 (95% CI:1.33-5.04), P = 0.005] and follistatin (> 685 pg/ml) [HR 2.29 (95% CI:1.12-4.69), P = 0.023] before ICI initiation were significantly predictive. Notably, no serum protein at the time of PD was predictive for OS-PD. There were also no serum predictive factors of OS in the 33 patients with durable clinical benefit. In conclusion, serum levels of CRP and follistatin before ICI initiation, not at the time of PD, are predictive for OS in NDBs, suggesting long-term survivor in NDBs are predetermined by the immune status before ICI initiation.