Abstract
BACKGROUND: Salmonella, a widespread pathogen, poses a significant threat to global food safety, leading to foodborne diseases and substantial economic losses. The timely and accurate detection of foodborne pathogens is pivotal for averting food contamination and outbreaks across the food production chain. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of traditional culture-based methods versus risk-based approaches, incorporating polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for Salmonella detection. METHODS: We employed a stochastic scenario tree model to simulate scenarios based on the sampling inspection plan for raw aquatic products conducted by the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2018 to 2020. Various detection methods (culture or PCR) were applied to these aquatic products based on their categorized risk level. Sensitivity values were derived from published data, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to compare the different scenarios against the traditional culture method. RESULTS: A total of 360 samples were collected for analysis. The cost of culture-based detection alone amounted to 125,423.20 Chinese Yuan (CNY) and yielded nine instances of positive Salmonella detections. The risk-based detection strategy, which combined the more sensitive PCR method with high-risk sample characteristics, while employing the culture method for the remaining combinations, imposed a total cost of 128,775.83 CNY and yielded ten positive detections. This approach cost approximately 3391.74 CNY per additional positive sample detected compared to the culture method alone. Meanwhile, PCR-only detection imposed a total cost of 62,960.03 CNY. CONCLUSIONS: In comparison to traditional culture-based methods, both the risk-based detection strategy and the PCR-only approach demonstrated superior capabilities with respect to detecting contaminated aquatic products. Implementing risk-based detection strategies can enhance cost-effectiveness, not only ensuring food safety but also reducing the incidence and economic burden of foodborne diseases.