Abstract
Ischemic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) originate from an imbalance between atherosclerotic plaque formation, instability, and endothelial healing dynamics. Our aim was to examine the relationship between 5-year changes in inflammatory, metabolic, and oxidative biomarkers and 10-year CVD incidence in a population without previous CVD. This was a prospective cohort study of individuals aged 35-74 years (n = 419) randomly selected from 5263 REGICOR participants without CVD recruited in 2005. Biomarkers were measured at baseline and in 2010. Participants were followed up until 2020 for a composite CVD endpoint including coronary artery disease, stroke, and peripheral artery disease. We used Cox regression to analyze the effect of biomarker levels on the occurrence of the composite endpoint, adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors and baseline levels of each biomarker. Individuals with elevated IL-6 or insulin after 5 years had a higher independent risk of CVD at 10 years, compared to those with lower levels. Each rise of 1 pg/mL of IL-6 or 10 pg/mL of insulin increased the 10-year risk of a CVD event by 32% and 2%, respectively. Compared to a model with traditional CVD risk factors only, the inclusion of IL-6 and insulin improved continuous reclassification by 51%. Elevated serum levels of IL-6 and insulin were associated with a higher risk of CVD at 10 years, independently of traditional CVD risk factors.