Abstract
BACKGROUND: Hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 follow heterogeneous clinical trajectories, requiring different levels of respiratory support and experiencing diverse clinical outcomes. Differences in host immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection may account for the heterogeneous clinical course, but we have limited data on the dynamic evolution of systemic biomarkers and related subphenotypes. Improved understanding of the dynamic transitions of host subphenotypes in COVID-19 may allow for improved patient selection for targeted therapies. RESEARCH QUESTION: We examined the trajectories of host-response profiles in severe COVID-19 and evaluated their prognostic impact on clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In this prospective observational study, we enrolled 323 inpatients with COVID-19 receiving different levels of baseline respiratory support: (1) low-flow oxygen (37%), (2) noninvasive ventilation (NIV) or high-flow oxygen (HFO; 29%), (3) invasive mechanical ventilation (27%), and (4) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (7%). We collected plasma samples on enrollment and at days 5 and 10 to measure host-response biomarkers. We classified patients by inflammatory subphenotypes using two validated predictive models. We examined clinical, biomarker, and subphenotype trajectories and outcomes during hospitalization. RESULTS: IL-6, procalcitonin, and angiopoietin 2 persistently were elevated in patients receiving higher levels of respiratory support, whereas soluble receptor of advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) levels displayed the inverse pattern. Patients receiving NIV or HFO at baseline showed the most dynamic clinical trajectory, with 24% eventually requiring intubation and exhibiting worse 60-day mortality than patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline (67% vs 35%; P < .0001). sRAGE levels predicted NIV failure and worse 60-day mortality for patients receiving NIV or HFO, whereas IL-6 levels were predictive in all patients regardless of level of support (P < .01). Patients classified to a hyperinflammatory subphenotype at baseline (< 10%) showed worse 60-day survival (P < .0001) and 50% of them remained classified as hyperinflammatory at 5 days after enrollment. INTERPRETATION: Longitudinal study of the systemic host response in COVID-19 revealed substantial and predictive interindividual variability influenced by baseline levels of respiratory support.