Abstract
BACKGROUND: Rwanda was the first African country to implement national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination (against types HPV6, 11, 16, and 18). In 2011, a school-based catch-up programme was initiated to vaccinate girls aged younger than 15 years but it also reached older girls in schools. We aimed to estimate the population-level effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence. METHODS: Cross-sectional surveys were done between July, 2013, and April, 2014 (baseline), and between March, 2019, and December, 2020 (repeat), in sexually active women aged 17-29 years at health centres in the Nyarugenge District of Kigali, Rwanda. HPV prevalence was assessed in cervical cell samples collected by a health-care worker in PreservCyt solution (Cytyc, Boxbourough, MA, USA) and tested using a general primer (GP5+ or GP6+)-mediated PCR. Adjusted overall, total, and indirect (herd immunity) vaccine effectiveness was computed as the percentage of HPV detection among all women and among unvaccinated women. FINDINGS: 1501 participants completed the baseline survey and 1639 completed the repeat survey. HPV vaccine-type prevalence in participants aged 17-29 years decreased from 12% (173 of 1501) in the baseline survey to 5% (89 of 1639) in the repeat survey, with an adjusted overall vaccine effectiveness of 47% (95% CI 31 to 60) and an adjusted indirect vaccine effectiveness of 32% (9 to 49). Among participants aged 17-23 years, who were eligible for catch-up vaccination, the adjusted overall vaccine effectiveness was 52% (35 to 65) and the adjusted indirect vaccine effectiveness was 36% (8 to 55), with important heterogeneity according to education (overall vaccine effectiveness was 68% [51 to 79] in participants with ≥6 years of school completed and 16% [-34 to 47] in those with <6 years) and HIV status (overall vaccine effectiveness was 55% [36 to 69] for HIV-negative participants and 24% [-62 to 64] for HIV-positive participants). INTERPRETATION: In Rwanda, the prevalence of vaccine-targeted HPV types has been significantly decreased by the HPV vaccine programme, most notably in women who were attending school during the catch-up programme in 2011. HPV vaccine coverage and population-level impact is expected to increase in future cohorts who are eligible for routine HPV vaccination at age 12 years. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.