Abstract
In 2021, the sole paragraph of article 40 of the Industrial Property Law (LPI) was declared unconstitutional. As a result, some companies filed lawsuits seeking an extension of the term of validity of their pharmaceutical patents. This article aims to estimate the possible economic consequences of the extension of the term of patents in spending on medicines for centralized procurement and the private market. This research consists of a descriptive case study in which an estimate of expenses is made on the economic effects of lawsuits filed in from May 12, 2021 to July 27, 2022. As a result, it was observed that the effects on expenses for the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) and for families in the private market are much greater in the case of court extension than by the extinct sole paragraph of article 40. Considering the three hypothesized price reductions, expenses generated by court extensions to the SUS account for 28% (basic reduction), 20% (average), and 18% (drastic), which are higher than the old sole paragraph of article 40 provided for. For the private market, the expenses resulting from extensions would be 37.5% higher in the basic reduction, 28.9% in the average, and 28.8% in the drastic one, when compared to the sole paragraph of article 40. It is concluded that the judicial extension is even more harmful than the extinct paragraph of article 40, especially for consumers, in the three hypotheses of price reductions considered.