Abstract
To evaluate the cumulative incidence of depression and its associated factors in the older population living in the urban area of the municipality of Bagé, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, a prospective cohort study was conducted from 2008 to 2016/2017. The analysis was restricted to 615 older adults with complete information on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), both at baseline and at follow-up, and who did not present depression in 2008. To calculate crude and adjusted incidence ratios and 95% confidence interval, Poisson regression with robust variance adjustment was used, including the baseline variables. A hierarchical model of four levels of determination was used. The variables were controlled for those of the same or of higher levels, and the p-value ≤ 0.20 was established to remain in the analysis model. In 2008, 523 older people did not have depression and 92 had been screened with the disease. In 2016/2017, of the 523 individuals without depression in the baseline measure, 10.3% tested positive at screening (incident cases), whereas 89.7% of the older adults remained free of the condition. Of the 92 older adults with depression in 2008, 32.6% continued to present depressive symptoms at follow-up and 67.3% had remission of symptoms. Leaving home once or never and being incapable of doing functional and instrumental activities of daily living were associated with a higher risk of positive screening for depression. The results reinforce the multidimensional and dynamic character of depression, which alternates short and long episodes, and may become recurrent and chronic.