Background
Although European guidelines recommend vascular ultrasound for the assessment of cardiovascular risk in low-to-moderate risk individuals, no algorithm properly identifies patients who could benefit from it. The
Conclusion
The PASAP-ILERVAS improves SA prediction, especially in women. Thus, it could reduce the number of unnecessary complementary explorations selecting patients for a further imaging study within the intermediate risk group, increasing cost-effectiveness and optimizing health resources. Clinical
Methods
Clinical, anthropometrical, and biochemical data were combined with a 12-territory vascular ultrasound to predict severe atheromatosis (SA: ≥ 3 territories with plaque). A Personalized Algorithm for Severe Atheromatosis Prediction (PASAP-ILERVAS) was obtained by machine learning. Models were trained in the ILERVAS cohort (n = 8,330; 51% women) and validated in the control subpopulation of the NEFRONA cohort (n = 559; 47% women). Performance was compared to the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model.
Results
The PASAP-ILERVAS is a sex-specific, easy-to-interpret predictive model that stratifies individuals according to their risk of SA in low, intermediate, or high risk. New clinical predictors beyond traditional factors were uncovered. In low- and high-risk (L&H-risk) men, the net reclassification index (NRI) was 0.044 (95% CI: 0.020-0.068), and the integrated discrimination index (IDI) was 0.038 (95% CI: 0.029-0.048) compared to the SCORE. In L&H-risk women, PASAP-ILERVAS showed a significant increase in the area under the curve (AUC, 0.074 (95% CI: 0.062-0.087), p-value: < 0.001), an NRI of 0.193 (95% CI: 0.162-0.224), and an IDI of 0.119 (95% CI: 0.109-0.129).
Trial registration
[www.ClinicalTrials.gov], identifier [NCT03228459].