Abstract
Chimerism and minimal residual disease (MRD) are suggested to be prognostic for post-transplantation relapse in patients with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). Nevertheless, the predictive value of both approaches in homogeneous populations remains underinvestigated. Here we suggest that MRD may have greater predictive value for relapse than mixed chimerism (MC) in intermediate-risk AML patients. Seventy-nine patients with intermediate-risk AML (40 males; median age, 57 years [range, 19 to 77 years]) were included. MRD detection on day +100 was performed in bone marrow via multiparameter flow cytometry (MFC) and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) for patients with an NPM1 mutation. Chimerism analysis was performed in peripheral blood. MC was defined as the persistence of <99.9% of donor alleles. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was highest for qPCR-MRD (.93), followed by MFC-MRD (.80) and MC (.65). The highest rate of relapse at 3 years was observed in day +100 qPCR-MRD-positive patients (100%), followed by MFC-MRD-positive patients (55%; P < .001). No patients with MC and without detectable MRD experienced relapse. The median 3-year overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) for patients with MC without detectable MRD were both 86% (range, 61% to 96%), significantly higher than the values in day +100 MFC-MRD-positive patients (OS, 61% [range, 36% to 84%]; LFS: 30% [range, 11% to 59%]) and with day +100 qPCR-MRD-positive patients (OS: 17% [range, 3% to 56%], P = .001; LFS: 0%, P < .001). In patients with intermediate-risk AML, the qPCR-MRD on day +100 was highly predictive for relapse and long-term survival after allogeneic stem cell transplantation, followed closely by MFC-MRD. In contrast, chimerism status had limited predictive potential. Thus, molecular and flow cytometry MRD monitoring rather than MC in the first several months post-transplantation can identify patients at increased risk of relapse who may benefit from early post-transplantation preemptive intervention.