Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Vertebral fractures (VFs) significantly increase risk of subsequent fractures. Areal bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by DXA and volumetric BMD by QCT, are strong predictors of VF. Nevertheless, risk prediction should be further improved. This study used data from the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) cohort to evaluate whether trabecular texture and paraspinal muscle assessments improve the prediction of the first incident VF. METHODS: CT scans of the L1 and L2 vertebrae of 843 elderly subjects; including 167 subjects with incident, VFs occurring within a 5-year period and 676 controls without fractures. Image analysis included measurement of BMD, cortical thickness and of parameters characterizing trabecular architecture and the autochthonous muscles. Fifty variables were used as predictors, including a BMD, a trabecular texture and a muscle subset. Each included age, BMI and corresponding parameters of the QCT analysis. The number of variables in each subset was reduced using stepwise logistic regression to create multivariable fracture prediction models. Model accuracy was assessed using the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and the area under the curve (AUC) criteria. Bootstrap analyses were performed to assess the stability of the model selection process. RESULTS: 96 women and 78 men with prior VF were excluded. Of 50 initial predictors, 17 were significant for women and 11 for men. Bone and texture models showed significantly better fracture prediction in women (p<0.001) and men (p<0.01) than the combination of age and BMI. The muscle model showed better fracture prediction in men only (p<0.03). Compared to the BMD model alone, LRT showed a significantly improved VF prediction of the combinations of BMD with texture (women and men) (p<0.05) or with muscle models (men only) (p=0.03) but no significant increases in AUC values (AUC women: Age&BMI: 0.57, BMD: 0.69, combined model: 0.69; AUC men: Age&BMI: 0.63, BMD: 0.71, combined models 0.73-0.77). DISCUSSION: Trabecular texture and muscle parameters significantly improved prediction of first VF over age and BMI, but improvements were small compared to BMD, which remained the primary predictor for both sexes. Although muscle measures showed some predictive power, particularly in men, their clinical significance was marginal. Integral BMD should remain the focus for fracture risk assessment in clinical practice.