Abstract
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common, complex, and heterogeneous disease impacting aging populations. Determining the landscape of disease progression trajectories from midlife to senior age in a real-world context allows us to better understand the progression of CKD, the heterogeneity of progression patterns among the risk population, and the interactions with other clinical conditions like cancers. In this study, we use electronic health records (EHRs) to outline the CKD progression trajectory roadmap for the Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center (WFBMC) patient population. We establish an EHR cohort (n = 79,434) with patients' health status identified by 18 Essential Clinical Indices across 508,732 clinical encounters. We develop the DisEase PrOgression Trajectory (DEPOT) approach to model CKD progression trajectories and individualize clinical decision support. The DEPOT is an evidence-driven, graph-based clinical informatics approach that addresses the unique challenges in longitudinal EHR data by systematically using the graph artificial intelligence (graph-AI) model for representation learning and reverse graph embedding for trajectory reconstruction. Moreover, DEPOT includes a prediction model to assign new patients along the progression trajectory. We successfully establish the EHR-based CKD progression trajectories with DEPOT in the WFUBMC cohort. We annotate the trajectories with clinical features, including kidney function, age, and other indices, including cancer. This CKD progression trajectory roadmap reveals diverse kidney failure pathways associated with different clinical conditions. Specifically, we have identified one high-risk trajectory and two low-risk trajectories. Switching pathways from low-risk trajectories to the high-risk one is associated with accelerated decline in kidney function. On this roadmap, high-risk patients are enriched in the skin and GU cancers, which differs from low-risk patients, suggesting fundamentally different disease progression mechanisms. Overall, the CKD progression trajectory roadmap reveals novel diverse renal failure pathways in type 2 diabetes mellitus and highlights disease progression patterns associated with cancer phenotypes.