Abstract
IMPORTANCE: The U.S. FDA has proposed a product standard that would reduce the nicotine content and addictiveness of cigarettes. It is unclear what impact this would have on economic outcomes or priority populations who are disproportionately harmed by tobacco use, such as people with major depression. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term health and economic impacts of a nicotine product standard for the U.S. population by depression status. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A microsimulation model was developed and calibrated to National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) 2005-2023 data on smoking, vaping, and depressive episodes. The anticipated effects of the nicotine product standard on smoking and vaping were obtained from an FDA expert elicitation and used to simulate the policy from 2027-2100. EXPOSURE: Smoking and vaping. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Health outcomes included prevalence of smoking and vaping, deaths, and life years gained overall and by major depression status. Economic outcomes include direct costs to the healthcare system and societal costs. RESULTS: Under the proposed nicotine product standard, smoking is projected to decline to <1% for people with and without depression by 2100. The policy is estimated to avert 1.7 million premature deaths and lead to 74.7 million life years gained. Depression prevalence is also expected to decline, with 8.5 million fewer cases of depression estimated. Longer life expectancies under the policy are projected to increase medical costs by $296 billion, while also increasing worker productivity by $266 billion with an additional $1.2 trillion in consumer spending. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Timely implementation of a nicotine reduction strategy, either through a federal product standard or state-level sales restrictions, is cost-effective and could prevent millions of premature deaths and reduce smoking disparities by depression status.