Abstract
BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae has been estimated to cause 9·18 million cases of pneumococcal pneumonia, meningitis, and invasive non-pneumonia non-meningitis disease and 318 000 deaths among children younger than 5 years in 2015. We estimated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction. METHODS: We updated our existing pseudodynamic model to estimate the impact of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 112 low-income and middle-income countries by adapting our previously published pseudodynamic model with new country-specific evidence on vaccine coverage, burden, and post-introduction vaccine impact from WHO-UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage and a global burden study. Deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and cases averted were estimated for children younger than 5 years born between 2000 and 2030. We used specific PCV coverage in each country and a hypothetical scenario in which coverage increased to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) levels. We conducted probabilistic uncertainty analyses. FINDINGS: Using specific vaccine coverage in countries, we estimated that PCV13 could prevent 697 000 (95% credibility interval 359 000-1 040 000) deaths, 46·0 (24·0-68·9) million DALYs, and 131 (89·0-172) million cases in 112 countries between 2000 and 2030. PCV was estimated to prevent 5·3% of pneumococcal deaths in children younger than 5 years during 2000-30. The incremental cost of vaccination would be I$851 (510-1530) per DALY averted. If PCV coverage were increased to DTP coverage in 2020, PCV13 could prevent an additional 146 000 (75 500-219 000) deaths. INTERPRETATION: The inclusion of real-world evidence from lower-income settings revealed that delays in PCV roll-out globally and low PCV coverage have cost many lives. Countries with delays in vaccine introduction or low vaccine coverage have experienced many PCV-preventable deaths. These findings underscore the importance of rapidly scaling up PCV to achieve high coverage and maximise vaccine impact. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.