Abstract
Plasma RNAemia, delayed antibody responses and inflammation predict COVID-19 outcomes, but the mechanisms underlying these immunovirological patterns are poorly understood. We profile 782 longitudinal plasma samples from 318 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Integrated analysis using k-means reveals four patient clusters in a discovery cohort: mechanically ventilated critically-ill cases are subdivided into good prognosis and high-fatality clusters (reproduced in a validation cohort), while non-critical survivors segregate into high and low early antibody responders. Only the high-fatality cluster is enriched for transcriptomic signatures associated with COVID-19 severity, and each cluster has distinct RBD-specific antibody elicitation kinetics. Both critical and non-critical clusters with delayed antibody responses exhibit sustained IFN signatures, which negatively correlate with contemporaneous RBD-specific IgG levels and absolute SARS-CoV-2-specific B and CD4+ T cell frequencies. These data suggest that the "Interferon paradox" previously described in murine LCMV models is operative in COVID-19, with excessive IFN signaling delaying development of adaptive virus-specific immunity.