Update of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification for EFSA PLH risk assessment

更新 EFSA PLH 风险评估的柯本-盖格气候分类

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Abstract

The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is widely used for characterising global climatic conditions. At EFSA, in the context of Plant Health Risk Assessment, the Köppen-Geiger system is used as a preliminary step to delineate zones of potential pest establishment across EU territories, providing a first screening prior to more detailed analyses. The version currently used by EFSA is the one by Kottek et al. rescaled after Rubel et al. which is now nearly one decade old. Since its publication, several refined and improved Köppen-Geiger datasets were made available, incorporating broader climate datasets, finer spatial resolutions and updated methodologies for climate variables interpolation. Among these, the recent Beck et al. version provides a globally consistent dataset based on the latest observation-based gridded climate products and satellite-derived data, offering improved accuracy particularly in regions with heterogeneous topography and significant climatic gradients. This report highlights the main differences between the version by Kottek et al. and Rubel et al. and the Beck et al. version, with a focus on their relevance for EU plant health risk assessment. The transition to Beck et al. results in notable shifts in classification boundaries within Europe, including adjustments in the extent of temperate, continental and Mediterranean climate zones. These changes are particularly relevant for forecasting the potential distribution of plant pests whose establishment is constrained by specific climatic thresholds. EFSA will therefore be adopting the climate classification developed by Beck et al. enhancing the scientific consistency of its early stage risk assessments, ensuring alignment with the most current and robust climate data available.

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