Abstract
BACKGROUND: Because insufficient data are available, the overall number of patients treated in German emergency departments can only be estimated. It is evident, however, that case numbers have been rising steadily in recent years, and that a lack of capacity is now leading with increasing freuqency to forced centralized allocation of patients by the emergency medical services (EMS) to emergency departments that are, officially, temporarily "closed". METHODS: Trends in patient allocation of this type in greater Munich, Germany, over the years 2013-2019 were analyzed for the first time on the basis of data from 904 997 cases treated by the emergency rescue services. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2019, the number of forced centralized patient allocations rose approximately by a factor of nine, from 70 to 634 per 100 000 persons per year. In the same period, the overall number of cases treated by the emergency rescue services rose by 14.5%. Peak values for forced centralized allocations were reached in the first quarter of each calendar year (2015: 1579, 2017: 2435, 2018: 3161, 2019: 3990). Of all medical specialties, internal medicine was the most heavily affected (more than 59% of the total). Especially in the years 2017-2019, the free availability of internal medicine declined in hospitals participating in the common greater Munich reporting system. CONCLUSION: The reasons for the sharp rise in forced centralized allocations are unclear. This observed trend seems likely to persist over the coming years, in view of the current staff shortage, the aging population, and diminishing hospital capacities. The relevant decision-makers must collaborate to create emergency plans that will prevent care bottlenecks so that patients will not be endangered.