Abstract
INTRODUCTION: This research project addresses the lack of screening tools for the early detection of high-risk individuals for long-term care, through four individual studies.Study 1 investigates the predictive ability of the 'Kihon Check List', study 2 the 'Cognitive Function instrument' and EuroQol-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) and study 3 the 'Cognitive Function instrument' and EQ-5D as well as the 'Frail Kenshin' health check-up, for incident long-term care certification over a follow-up period of up to 4 years. This is the first large prospective study to evaluate the predictive ability of these tools for the outcome measure long-term care certification. The last subsection of this project study four aims to explore a mixed methods intervention for delaying the need for long-term care. This section is purely exploratory, looking for clues for further studies. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Baseline data have been collected through local government programs, as well as through postal self-reported questionnaires. The primary outcome variable for all studies is long-term care certification data. Statistical analysis will be carried out using Kaplan-Meier, Multiple Cox regression as well as logistic regression. CONCLUSION: This project hopes to identify tools effective in predicting long-term care need. This will enable identification of citizens that are of higher risk for long-term care in the near future. This subset of high-risk individuals can in the future be addressed for extra support/intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: All studies have been approved by respective institutional ethical committees and the WHO ethical committee ERC.0002899. In addition, all studies conform to the provisions of the Declaration of Helsinki and are conducted in accordance with Japan's 'Ethical Guidelines for Medical and Health Research Involving Human Subjects'. All findings will be disseminated at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000023283.