Abstract
To better understand the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants, we performed molecular evolutionary analyses of the spike (S) protein gene/S protein using advanced bioinformatics technologies. First, time-scaled phylogenetic analysis estimated that a common ancestor of the Wuhan, Alpha, Beta, Delta variants, and Omicron variants/subvariants diverged in May 2020. After that, a common ancestor of the Omicron variant generated various Omicron subvariants over one year. Furthermore, a chimeric virus between the BM.1.1.1 and BJ.1 subvariants, known as XBB, diverged in July 2021, leading to the emergence of the prevalent subvariants XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16. Next, similarity plot (SimPlot) data estimated that the recombination point (breakpoint) corresponded to nucleotide position 1373. As a result, XBB.1.5 subvariants had the 5' nucleotide side from the breakpoint as a strain with a BJ.1 sequence and the 3' nucleotide side as a strain with a BM.1.1.1 sequence. Genome network data showed that Omicron subvariants were genetically linked with the common ancestors of the Wuhan and Delta variants, resulting in many amino acid mutations. Selective pressure analysis estimated that the prevalent subvariants, XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16, had specific amino acid mutations, such as V445P, G446S, N460K, and F486P, located in the RBD when compared with the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. Moreover, some representative immunogenicity-associated amino acid mutations, including L452R, F486V, R493Q, and V490S, were also found in these subvariants. These substitutions were involved in the conformational epitopes, implying that these mutations affect immunogenicity and vaccine evasion. Furthermore, these mutations were identified as positive selection sites. These results suggest that the S gene/S protein Omicron subvariants rapidly evolved, and mutations observed in the conformational epitopes may reduce the effectiveness of the current vaccine, including bivalent vaccines such as mRNA vaccines containing the BA.4/BA.5 subvariants.