Abstract
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the time-dependent prognostic utility of two fibrosis markers representing organ fibrogenesis (N-terminal propeptide of procollagen III (PIIINP) and type IV collagen 7S (P4NP 7S)) in patients with acute heart failure (HF). METHODS: 390 patients with acute HF were dichotomised based on the median value of fibrosis markers at discharge. The primary outcome measure was a composite of cardiac death and HF hospitalisation. RESULTS: P4NP 7S significantly declined during hospitalisation, whereas PIIINP did not. The cumulative 90-day and 365-day incidence of the primary outcome measure was 16.6% vs 16.0% (p=0.42) and 33.3% vs 28.4% (p=0.34) in the patients with high versus low PIIINP; 19.9% vs 13.0% (p=0.04) and 32.3% vs 29.0% (p=0.34) in the patients with high and low P4NP 7S, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, high P4NP 7S correlated with significant excess risk relative to low P4NP 7S for both 90-day and 365-day primary outcome measure (adjusted HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.21; p=0.04 and adjusted HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.11 to 3.26; p=0.02, respectively), which was driven by significant association of high P4NP 7S with higher incidence of HF hospitalisation. Furthermore, P4NP 7S exhibited an additive value to conventional prognostic factors for predicting 90-day outcome (p=0.038 for net reclassification improvement; p=0.0068 for integrated discrimination improvement). High PIIINP did not correlate with significant excess risk for both 90-day and 365-day outcome. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests a possible role of P4NP 7S in the risk stratification of patients with acute HF.