Abstract
Background: Cytogenetic abnormalities and the persistence of minimal residual disease (MRD) following autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) are two established prognostically unfavorable biomarkers in multiple myeloma (MM). Previous studies have shown that post-transplant MRD status is a powerful predictor of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). However, the impact of MRD remains poorly characterized in MM patients with high- or ultra-high-risk cytogenetics. Objectives: This study investigated the prognostic value of post-transplant MRD in standard- versus high- and ultra-high-risk MM. To this aim, we performed a retrospective analysis of 137 MM patients who underwent high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) and ASCT at our institution between January 2019 and December 2021. Cytogenetics were assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridization. High-risk genomic alterations included del(17p), t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), gain(1q), and TP53 mutations, with two or more alterations defining the ultra-high-risk category. MRD was assessed in bone marrow aspirates post-ASCT using flow cytometry. Results: Eighty-two (60%) patients were categorized as being at standard risk, forty (29%) as high risk, and fifteen (11%) as ultra-high risk. Median follow-up was 47 months. MRD negativity was achieved in 76 (55%) patients. At 48 months, the overall PFS rate was 61% (72%, 50%, and 32% for the standard-, high-, and ultra-high-risk subgroups, respectively; p = 0.0004), while the OS rate was 85% (89%, 79%, and 80% in standard-, high-, and ultra-high-risk MM patients, respectively; p = 0.1494). Within the standard-risk subgroup, longer PFS was observed for patients achieving MRD negativity (p = 0.0172). High- and ultra-high-risk patients showed no significant differences in PFS when stratified by MRD status, possibly due to prompt progression to MRD positivity. Conclusions: Our results suggest that high- and ultra-high-risk MM patients might benefit from closer response monitoring, including dynamic MRD assessment. Further, high- and ultra-high-risk patients might require a more intensive peri-transplant treatment.