Abstract
BACKGROUND: In the present study, we aimed to identify risk factors for failure (defined as reoperation within 60 days) after debridement or amputation at the lower extremity in patients with diabetic foot syndrome and to develop a model using the significant risk factors to predict the success rate at different levels of amputation. METHODS: Between September 2012 and November 2016, we performed a prospective observational cohort study of 174 surgeries in 105 patients with diabetic foot syndrome. In all patients, debridement or the level of amputation, need for reoperation, time to reoperation, and potential risk factors were assessed. A cox regression analysis, dependent on the level of amputation, with the endpoint reoperation within 60 days defined as failure and a predictive model for the significant risk factors were conducted. RESULTS: We identified the following 5 independent risk factors: More than 1 ulcer (hazard ratio [HR] 3.8), peripheral artery disease (PAD, HR 3.1), C-reactive protein >100 mg/L (HR 2.9), diabetic peripheral neuropathy (HR 2.9), and nonpalpable foot pulses (HR 2.7) are the 5 independent risk factors for failure, which were identified. Patients with no or 1 risk factor have a high success rate independent of the level of amputation. A patient with up to 2 risk factors undergoing debridement will achieve a success rate of <60%. However, a patient with 3 risk factors undergoing debridement will need further surgery in >80%. In patients with 4 risk factors a transmetatarsal amputation and in patients with 5 risk factors a lower leg amputation is needed for a success rate >50%. CONCLUSION: Reoperation for diabetic foot syndrome occurs in 1 of 4 patients. Risk factors include presence of more than 1 ulcer, PAD, CRP > 100, peripheral neuropathy, and nonpalpable foot pulses. The more risk factors are present, the lower the success rate at a certain level of amputation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, prospective observational cohort study.