Abstract
Reducing the burden of limited capacity on medical practitioners and public health systems requires a time-dependent characterization of hospitalization rates, such that inferences can be drawn about the underlying causes for hospitalization and patient discharge. The aim of this study was to analyze non-medical risk factors that lead to the discharge of trauma patients. This retrospective cohort study includes trauma patients who were treated in Switzerland between 2011 and 2018. The national Swiss database for quality assurance in surgery (AQC) was reviewed for trauma diagnoses according to the ICD-10 code. Non-medical risk factors include seasonal changes, daily changes, holidays, and number of beds occupied by trauma patients across Switzerland. Individual patient information was aggregated into counts per day of total patients, as well as counts per day of levels of each categorical variable of interest. The ARIMA-modeling was utilized to model the number of discharges per day as a function of auto aggressive function of all previously mentioned risk factors. This study includes 226,708 patients, 118,059 male (age 48.18, standard deviation (SD) 22.34 years) and 108,649 female (age 62.57, SD 22.89 years) trauma patients. The mean length of stay was 7.16 (SD 14.84) days and most patients were discharged home (n = 168,582, 74.8%). A weekly and yearly seasonality trend can be observed in admission trends. The mean number of occupied trauma beds ranges from 3700 to 4000 per day. The number of occupied beds increases on weekdays and decreases on holidays. The number of occupied beds is a positive, independent risk factor for discharge in trauma patients; as the number of occupied beds increases at any given time, so does the risk for discharge. The number of beds occupied represents an independent non-medical risk factor for discharge. Capacity determines triage of hospitalized patients and therefore might increase the risk of premature discharge.