Abstract
BACKGROUND: In 2023, Wave 2 of an annual, nationally representative longitudinal survey found a concerning level of agreement that civil war was likely in the USA and, among those who agreed, widespread belief that civil war was needed. This study updates those findings to 2024 and explores respondents' predicted involvement in such a conflict. METHODS: Findings are from Wave 3, conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. All respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate; to facilitate comparison with 2023 findings, this analysis is restricted to Wave 3 respondents who had responded to both Waves 1 and 2. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences. RESULTS: The Wave 3 completion rate was 88.4% overall and 91.6% for respondents to Waves 1 and 2; there were 8185 respondents in the analytic sample. After weighting, half the sample was female (50.6%, 95% CI 49.1%, 52.1%); the weighted mean (SD) age was 50.8 (16.4) years. Few respondents agreed strongly or very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States" (6.5%, 95% CI 5.7%, 7.3%) or that "the United States needs a civil war to set things right" (3.6%, 95% CI 3.0%, 4.2%). These prevalences were higher among subsets of respondents previously associated with increased support for and willingness to commit political violence. Of the small minority (3.7%, 95% CI 3.1%, 4.3%) who thought it very or extremely likely that they would be combatants, 44.5% (95% CI 36.5%, 52.6%) reported that they would convert to not likely if this were urged by family members; 23-31% were open to persuasion by friends, respected religious leaders, elected officials, and the media. CONCLUSIONS: In mid-2024, the expectation that civil war was likely and the belief that it was needed were uncommon and were unchanged from 2023. Those expecting to participate as combatants reported openness to change in response to input from many sources. These findings can help guide prevention efforts.