Abstract
BACKGROUND: Amyloid-beta (Aβ) plaque is a neuropathological hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD). As anti-amyloid monoclonal antibodies enter the market, predicting brain amyloid status is critical to determine treatment eligibility. OBJECTIVE: To predict brain amyloid status utilizing machine learning approaches in the Advancing Reliable Measurement in Alzheimer's Disease and Cognitive Aging (ARMADA) study. DESIGN: ARMADA is a multisite study that implemented the National Institute of Health Toolbox for Assessment of Neurological and Behavioral Function (NIHTB) in older adults with different cognitive ability levels (normal, mild cognitive impairment, early-stage dementia of the AD type). SETTING: Participants across various sites were involved in the ARMADA study for validating the NIHTB. PARTICIPANTS: 199 ARMADA participants had either PET or CSF information (mean age 76.3 ± 7.7, 51.3% women, 42.3% some or complete college education, 50.3% graduate education, 88.9% White, 33.2% with positive AD biomarkers). MEASUREMENTS: We used cognition, emotion, motor, sensation scores from NIHTB, and demographics to predict amyloid status measured by PET or CSF. We applied LASSO and random forest models and used the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) to evaluate the ability to identify amyloid positivity. RESULTS: The random forest model reached AUROC of 0.74 with higher specificity than sensitivity (AUROC 95% CI:0.73 - 0.76, Sensitivity 0.50, Specificity 0.88) on the held-out test set; higher than the LASSO model (0.68 (95% CI:0.68 - 0.69)). The 10 features with the highest importance from the random forest model are: picture sequence memory, cognition total composite, cognition fluid composite, list sorting working memory, words-in-noise test (hearing), pattern comparison processing speed, odor identification, 2-minutes-walk endurance, 4-meter walk gait speed, and picture vocabulary. Overall, our model revealed the validity of measurements in cognition, motor, and sensation domains, in associating with AD biomarkers. CONCLUSION: Our results support the utilization of the NIH toolbox as an efficient and standardizable AD biomarker measurement that is better at identifying amyloid negative (i.e., high specificity) than positive cases (i.e., low sensitivity).