Abstract
BACKGROUND: There are a wide variety of infectious complications of injection drug use. Understanding the trajectory of these complications might inform the development of an early warning system for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreaks that occur regularly among people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: A distributed lag Poisson regression model in the Bayesian setting was used to examine temporal patterns in the incidence of injection-associated infectious diseases and their association with HIV cases in Lawrence and Lowell, Massachusetts between 2005 and 2018. RESULTS: Current-month HIV counts are associated with fatal overdoses approximately 8 months prior, cases of infective endocarditis 10 months prior, and cases of skin and soft tissue infections and incision and drainage procedures associated with these infections 12 months prior. CONCLUSIONS: Collecting data on these other complications associated with injection drug use by public health departments may be important to consider because these complications may serve as input to a sentinel system to trigger early intervention and avert potential outbreaks of HIV.