Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related clonal expansion of hematopoietic cells with acquired preleukemic variants, has been associated with cardiometabolic diseases, including heart failure (HF). However, prior studies have lacked power to examine less common CHIP driver variants and have not investigated potential mediators of the CHIP-HF association. OBJECTIVE: To test whether specific CHIP subtypes are associated with incident HF and determine the extent to which CHIP-associated comorbidities mediate this association. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a UK Biobank prospective population-based cohort study of community-dwelling adults in the UK, with enrollment from 2006 to 2010 and follow-up through 2020. Included were participants with whole-exome sequencing (WES) and without prevalent HF, hematologic malignancy, or other CHIP-associated comorbidities (coronary artery disease [CAD], atrial fibrillation [AF], type 2 diabetes [T2D], or chronic kidney disease [CKD]) at baseline. Study data were analyzed from April through October 2025. EXPOSURES: Presence of CHIP and gene-specific CHIP subtypes (DNMT3A, non-DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, JAK2, DNA damage repair genes, and spliceosome genes). Mediation analyses examined CHIP-associated comorbidities (CAD, AF, T2D, and CKD). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was incident HF. Cox regression tested associations of CHIP and CHIP subtypes with incident HF, adjusted for age, sex, race, and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Among 417 616 participants (mean [SD] age, 56.1 [8.1] years; 234 868 female [56.2%]), 7183 (1.7%) developed incident HF over a median (IQR) of 11.1 (10.4-11.8) years of follow-up. CHIP was associated with HF risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.27; 95% CI, 1.15-1.40; P < .001), driven by non-DNMT3A subtypes (aHR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.33-1.75; P < .001), including associations with TET2, ASXL1, JAK2, and spliceosome CHIP. DNMT3A CHIP was more modestly associated with HF (aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00-1.31; P = .04). In mediation analyses, development of CAD, AF, T2D, and/or CKD collectively accounted for 28.2% of the association (95% CI, 11.6%-45.4%; P = .001) between non-DNMT3A CHIP and HF. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of this cohort study suggest that CHIP, especially non-DNMT3A CHIP, was associated with incident HF. Other CHIP-associated comorbidities explained only a minority of the association between non-DNMT3A CHIP and HF. These findings suggest that CHIP is an HF risk factor and potential therapeutic target.