Abstract
This study examined the development of positive smoking expectancies and smoking behavior in an urban cohort of girls followed annually over ages 11-14. Longitudinal data from the oldest cohort of the Pittsburgh Girls Study (N = 566, 56% African American, 44% Caucasian) were used to estimate a parallel process growth model of positive smoking expectancies and smoking behavior. Average level of positive smoking expectancies was relatively stable over ages 11-14, although there was significant variability in initial level and rate of change in positive smoking expectancies. Ethnicity was associated with expectancy intercept and slope, such that African American, relative to Caucasian, girls initially had more positive expectancies, and less rapid change in positive expectancies. Ethnic differences in past year smoking prevalence emerged at age 14, with greater smoking prevalence among Caucasian (17%), compared to African American (8%), girls. Initial level of positive smoking expectancies and initial smoking behavior were positively associated, but positive expectancies did not predict growth in smoking behavior. Depression at age 11 was concurrently and positively associated with both positive expectancies and smoking. Study results suggest the potential utility of culturally tailored smoking prevention efforts, and the potential secondary benefit of depression treatment to prevent smoking among at-risk girls.