Abstract
Livestock and poultry manure emits substantial amounts of ammonia and non-CO(2) greenhouse gases of nitrous oxide and methane, contributing simultaneously to climate forcing and air quality degradation. However, few studies have provided an integrated quantification of ammonia, nitrous oxide and methane emissions across multiple species and provinces in China. This study established a coupled provincial inventory for 2013-2023 and applied the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to identify socioeconomic drivers. Results show that NH(3) emissions declined slightly from ~4.1 Tg in 2013 to 3.95 Tg in 2023 (-3.7%), while N(2)O increased from 2.1 to 2.3 Tg (+9.5%) and CH(4) rose from 3.1 to 4.2 Tg (+35%). Consequently, the aggregated global warming potential increased by ~24% (from ~1100 to ~1370 Tg CO(2)-eq). Hogs were identified as the dominant contributor across gases. High-emission provinces contributed disproportionately, whereas metropolitan and western provinces reported marginal levels. LMDI decomposition revealed that affluence and technological intensification were the main drivers of growth, partially offset by production efficiency and labor decline. This study provides one of the first integrated multi-gas, multi-species, and region-specific assessments of livestock manure emissions in China, offering insights into targeted mitigation strategies that simultaneously support carbon neutrality and air quality improvement.