The inequality labor loss risk from future urban warming and adaptation strategies

未来城市变暖及适应策略带来的不平等和劳动力流失风险

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Abstract

Heat-induced labor loss is a major economic cost related to climate change. Here, we use hourly heat stress data modeled with a regional climate model to investigate the heat-induced labor loss in 231 Chinese cities. Results indicate that future urban heat stress is projected to cause an increase in labor losses exceeding 0.20% of the total account gross domestic product (GDP) per year by the 2050s relative to the 2010s. In this process, certain lower-paid sectors could be disproportionately impacted. The implementation of various urban adaptation strategies could offset 10% of the additional economic loss per year and help reduce the inequality-related impact on lower-paid sectors. So future urban warming can not only damage cities as a whole but can also contribute to income inequality. The implication of adaptation strategies should be considered in regard to not only cooling requirements but also environmental justice.

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