Abstract
Elevated urinary albumin excretion (microalbuminuria) is an early marker of diabetic nephropathy, but there is an unmet need for better biomarkers that capture the individuals at risk with higher accuracy and earlier than the current markers do. We performed an untargeted metabolomic study to assess baseline differences between individuals with type 1 diabetes who either developed microalbuminuria or remained normoalbuminuric. A total of 102 individuals progressed to microalbuminuria during a median follow-up of 3.2 years, whereas 98 sex-, age- and body mass index (BMI) matched non-progressors remained normoalbuminuric during a median follow-up of 7.1 years. Metabolomic screening identified 1,242 metabolites, out of which 111 differed significantly between progressors and non-progressors after adjustment for age of diabetes onset, baseline glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA(1c)), and albumin excretion rate (AER). The metabolites that predicted development of microalbumiuria included several uremic toxins and carnitine metabolism related molecules. Iterative variable selection indicated erythritol, 3-phenylpropionate, and N-trimethyl-5-aminovalerate as the best set of variables to predict development of microalbuminuria. A metabolomic index based on these metabolites improved the prediction of incident microalbuminuria on top of the clinical variables age of diabetes onset, baseline HbA(1c) and AER (ROC(AUC) = 0.842 vs 0.797), highlighting their ability to predict early-phase diabetic nephropathy.