Abstract
BACKGROUND: When the COVID-19 pandemic intersected with the longstanding global pandemic of traumatic injury, it exacerbated racial and ethnic disparities in injury burden. As Milwaukee, Wisconsin is a racially diverse yet segregated urban city due to historic and ongoing systemic efforts, this populace provided an opportunity to further characterize injury disparities. METHOD: We analyzed trauma registry data from the only adult Level 1 trauma center in Milwaukee, WI before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (N = 19,908 patients from 2015–2021). We retrospectively fit seasonal ARIMA models to monthly injury counts to determine baseline injury burden pre-COVID-19 (Jan 2015–Mar 2020). This baseline data was used to forecast injury by race and ethnicity from April 2020 to December 2021 and was compared to actual injury counts. RESULTS: For all mechanisms of injury (MOI), counts during the pandemic were significantly higher than forecasted for Black or African American (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE = 23.17) and Hispanic or Latino (MAPE = 26.67) but not White patients (MAPE = 12.72). Increased injury for Black or African American patients was driven by increases in motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) and firearm-related injury; increased injury for Hispanic or Latino patients was driven by falls and MVCs. CONCLUSIONS: The exacerbation of injury burden disparities during COVID-19, particularly in specific MOI, underscores the need for primary injury prevention within specific overburdened communities. Injury prevention requires intervention through social determinants of health, including addressing the impact of structural racism, as primary drivers of injury burden disparities.