Abstract
As climate change continues to modify temperature and rainfall patterns, risks from pests and diseases may vary as shifting temperature and moisture conditions affect the life history, activity, and distribution of invertebrates and diseases. The potential consequences of changing climate on pest management strategies must be understood for control measures to adapt to new environmental conditions. The redlegged earth mite (RLEM; Halotydeus destructor [Tucker]) is a major economic pest that attacks pastures and grain crops across southern Australia and is typically controlled by pesticides. TIMERITE® is a management strategy that relies on estimating the optimal timing (the TIMERITE® date) for effective chemical control of RLEM populations in spring. In this study, we assessed the efficacy of control at the TIMERITE® date from 1990 to 2020 across southern Australia using a simulation approach that incorporates historical climatic data and field experimental data on life history, seasonal abundance, and population level pesticide responses. We demonstrate that moisture and temperature conditions affect the life history of RLEM and that changes in the past three decades have gradually diminished the efficacy of the TIMERITE® strategy. Furthermore, we show that by incorporating improved climatic data into predictions and shifting the timing of control to earlier in the year, control outcomes can be improved and are more stable across changing climates. This research emphasises the importance of accounting for dynamic environmental responses when developing and implementing pest management strategies to ensure their long-term effectiveness. Suggested modifications to estimating the TIMERITE® date will help farmers maintain RLEM control outcomes amidst increasingly variable climatic conditions.