Abstract
The pepper weevil Anthonomus eugenii is a devastating pest native to Central America that can cause severe damage to over 35 pepper varieties. Global trade in peppers has significantly increased the risk of its spread and expansion. Moreover, future climate change may add more uncertainty to its distribution, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage globally. Therefore, we employed an ensemble model combining Random Forests and CLIMEX to predict the potential global distribution of A. eugenii in historical and future climate scenarios. The results indicated that the maximum temperature of the warmest month is an important variable affecting global A. eugenii distribution. Under the historical climate scenario, the potential global distribution of A. eugenii is concentrated in the Midwestern and Southern United States, Central America, the La Plata Plain, parts of the Brazilian Plateau, the Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, sub-Saharan Africa, Northern and Southern China, Southern India, Indochina Peninsula, and coastal area in Eastern Australia. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe, and China, are projected to expand toward higher latitudes. In China, the number of highly suitable areas is expected to increase significantly, mainly in the south and north. Contrastingly, suitable areas in Central America, northern South America, the Brazilian Plateau, India, and the Indochina Peninsula will become less suitable. The total land area suitable for A. eugenii under historical and future low- and high-emission climate scenarios accounted for 73.12, 66.82, and 75.97% of the global land area (except for Antarctica), respectively. The high-suitability areas identified by both models decreased by 19.05 and 35.02% under low- and high-emission scenarios, respectively. Building on these findings, we inferred the future expansion trends of A. eugenii globally. Furthermore, we provide early warning of A. eugenii invasion and a scientific basis for its spread and outbreak, facilitating the development of effective quarantine and control measures.