Abstract
The discriminating ability of 15 parameters alone or in combinations, including results from analysis of plasma endotoxin, the Nycomed plasma D-Dimer test and phospholipase A2, were analyzed to predict morbidity and mortality in equine gastrointestinal colic. Endotoxaemia was a characteristic feature of the colic horses. The problem of adequately predicting nonsurvivors among colic horses required several parameters to be included in the logistic model: if the "classical parameters", (heart rate, respiratory rate, PCV, anion gap) were included in the model, addition of plasma D-dimer, phospholipase A2, and Cl- significantly improved the predictive value of the logistic model. Increasing heart rate and D-dimer together with decreasing chloride was a risk factor for nonsurvival. The sensitivity of this three-parameter logistic model to predict nonsurvival was 78% and specificity 77%. The Nycomed D-Dimer test is recommended as a horse-site test to predict disseminated intravascular coagulation and nonsurvival in equine colic.