Abstract
BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) may result from the combined effect of multiple etiological factors. The relationship between disease incidence and age, as demonstrated in the cancer literature, can be used to model a multistep pathogenic process, potentially affording unique insights into disease development. OBJECTIVES: We tested whether the observed incidence of PD is consistent with a multistep process, estimated the number of steps required and whether this varies with age, and examined drivers of sex differences in PD incidence. METHODS: Our validated probabilistic modeling process, based on medication prescribing, generated nationwide age- and sex-adjusted PD incidence data spanning 2006-2017. Models of log(incidence) versus log(age) were compared using Bayes factors, to estimate (1) if a linear relationship was present (indicative of a multistep process); (2) the relationship's slope (one less than number of steps); (3) whether slope was lower at younger ages; and (4) whether slope or y-intercept varied with sex. RESULTS: Across >15,000 incident cases of PD, there was a clear linear relationship between log(age) and log(incidence). Evidence was strongest for a model with an initial slope of 5.2 [3.8, 6.4], an inflexion point at age 45, and beyond this a slope of 6.8 [6.4, 7.2]. There was evidence for the intercept varying by sex, but no evidence for slope being sex-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: The age-specific incidence of PD is consistent with a process that develops in multiple, discrete steps - on average six before age 45 and eight after. The model supports theories emphasizing the primacy of environmental factors in driving sex differences in PD incidence. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.