Abstract
PURPOSE/BACKGROUND: Early response after 2 to 4 weeks of antidepressant therapy has been shown to predict remission by 8 to 12 weeks. Most of the work to date on early response has been done using data from randomized controlled trials. METHODS/PROCEDURES: This naturalistic study uses archival data from a national tele-mental health company. The positive and negative predictive values as well as sensitivity and specificity were calculated using different drops in baseline Patient Health Questionnaire 9 scores at various periods. Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared between early responders versus those lacking early response. Binary logistic regression analyses determined if early response was predictive of remission, response, and greater than minimal improvement at 14 weeks. For those who do not show early improvement, treatments were investigated using binary logistic regression to see if changes predicted later outcomes. FINDINGS/RESULTS: Positive predictive values for all endpoints improved with the strength of early response but did not improve much with the time allowed for that response to occur. In contrast, negative predictive values increased substantially with time. Using a definition of 30% drop in Patient Health Questionnaire 9 score at week 4, 56.5% of patients were early responders. Early responders were ~3.2 times more likely to achieve remission than those lacking early response. Of nonresponders by week 4, those prescribed atypical antipsychotics (+SSRI) had significantly reduced odds of response at week 14, whereas those prescribed a norepinephrine and dopamine reuptake inhibitor had increased odds. IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSIONS: Early response may be associated with better outcomes at 14 weeks. In those with lack of response by week 4, patients prescribed a norepinephrine and dopamine reuptake inhibitor may achieve superior outcomes.