Abstract
Background: The emergence of castration resistance is fatal for patients with prostate cancer (PCa); however, there is still a lack of effective means to detect the early progression. In this study, a novel combined nomogram was established to predict the risk of progression related to castration resistance. Methods: The castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC)-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified by R packages "limma" and "WGCNA" in GSE35988-GPL6480 and GSE70768-GPL10558, respectively. Relationships between DEGs and progression-free interval (PFI) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method in TCGA PCa patients. A multigene signature was built by lasso-penalized Cox regression analysis, and assessed by the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and Kaplan-Meier curve. Finally, the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to establish a combined nomogram. The prognostic value of the nomogram was validated by concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, ROC curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: 15 CRPC-related DEGs were identified finally, of which 13 genes were significantly associated with PFI and used as the candidate genes for modeling. A two-gene (KIFC2 and BCAS1) signature was built to predict the risk of progression. The ROC curve indicated that 5-year area under curve (AUC) in the training, testing, and whole TCGA dataset was 0.722, 0.739, and 0.731, respectively. Patients with high-risk scores were significantly associated with poorer PFI (p < 0.0001). A novel combined nomogram was successfully established for individualized prediction integrating with T stage, Gleason score, and risk score. While the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year AUC were 0.76, 0.761, and 0.762, respectively, the good prognostic value of the nomogram was also validated by the C-index (0.734), calibration plots, and DCA. Conclusion: The combined nomogram can be used to predict the individualized risk of progression related to castration resistance for PCa patients and has been preliminarily verified to have good predictive ability.