Abstract
Dysregulation of autophagy-related genes (ARGs) is related to the prognosis of cancers. However, the aberrant expression of ARGs signature in the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain unclear. Using The Cancer Genome Atlas and the International Cancer Genome Consortium database, 188 common autophagy-related gene pairs (ARGPs) were identified. Through univariate, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis, and multivariate Cox regression analysis, a prognostic signature of the training set was constructed on the basis of 6 ARGPs. Further analysis revealed that the ARGP based signature performed more accurately in overall survival (OS) prediction compared to other published gene signatures. In addition, a high risk of HCC was closely related to CTLA4 upregulation, LC3 downregulation, low-response to axitinib, rapamycin, temsirolimus, docetaxel, metformin, and high-response to bleomycin. Univariate Cox and multivariate Cox analysis revealed that the risk score was an independent prognostic factor for HCC. These results were internally validated in the test and TCGA sets and externally validated in the ICGC set. A nomogram, consisting of the risk score and the TNM stage, performed well when compared to an ideal nomogram. In conclusion, a 6-ARGP-based prognostic signature was identified and validated as an effective predictor of OS of patients with HCC. Furthermore, we recognized six small-molecule drugs, which may be potentially effective in treating HCC.