Abstract
Alien invasive plants pose a significant threat to global agricultural production, with functional traits playing a critical role in their spread and establishment processes. However, relevant research is scarce in oasis agroecosystems, which are more sensitive to global change. We studied oasis agroecosystems in Xinjiang, China, to explore the relationship between alien plant functional traits and invasion risk. A total of 611 sites comprising 9,165 plots were surveyed, covering an area of 22,474.73 hectares. Field surveys recorded species, density, and cover of alien plants, measuring traits related to growth, reproduction, and dispersal. Invasion risk was classified into four levels based on importance values. Random forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) modeling analyzed the relationship between functional traits and invasion risk, while MaxEnt modeling predicted potential distributions. We identified 62 alien plant species from 18 families and 44 genera, with Asteraceae and Amaranthaceae being the most represented families. High-risk invasive plants shared certain functional traits-specifically, high specific leaf area (SLA) and larger seed mass-which significantly enhance their invasion potential in oasis agroecosystems. The combination of these traits correlates with increased invasion risk. By incorporating SLA into the weighting of high-risk species distributions, we predicted potential distribution areas with an AUC value of 0.981. Our study identifies key functional traits enabling alien plant invasions in oasis agriculture, enhancing understanding of invasion mechanisms. Findings provide a foundation for predicting potential invasive species and developing management strategies to mitigate impacts on agricultural productivity and ecosystem services.