Abstract
The coupling effects created by transboundary and local factors on ecosystem services are often difficult to determine. This poses great challenges for ecosystem protection and management in border areas. To decrease uncertainty, it is crucial to quantify and spatialize the impact multiple factors have on ecosystem services within different scenarios. In this study, we identified key transboundary and local factors from a set of 15 sorted factors related to four main ecosystem services. We employed a Bayesian Network-Geographic Information System (BN-GIS) model to simulate 90 scenarios with multiple factors combinations, quantifying and spatializing the coupling effects on the main ecosystem services. These simulations were conducted in the Pu'er region, which is situated alongside three countries, and serves as a representative border area in southwest China. The results showed that: (1) The coupling effects of multiple factors yield significant variations when combined in different scenarios. Managers can optimize ecosystem services by strategically regulating factors within specific areas through the acquisition of various probabilistic distributions and combinations of key factors in positive coupling effect scenarios. The outcome is a positive coupling effect. (2) Among the four main ecosystem services in the Pu'er region, food availability and biodiversity were affected by key transboundary and local factors. This suggests that the coupling of transboundary and local factors is more likely to have a significant impact on these two ecosystem services. Of the 45 combination scenarios on food availability, the majority exhibit a negative coupling effect. In contrast, among the 45 combination scenarios on biodiversity, most scenarios have a positive coupling effect. This indicates that food availability is at a higher risk of being influenced by the coupling effects of multiple factors, while biodiversity faces a lower risk. (3) Transboundary pests & diseases, application of pesticides, fertilizer & filming , population density, and land use were the key factors affecting food availability. Bio-invasion, the normalized differential vegetation index, precipitation, and the landscape contagion index were the key factors affecting biodiversity. In this case, focusing on preventing transboundary factors such as transboundary pests & disease and bio-invasion should be the goal. (4) Attention should also be paid to the conditions under which these transboundary factors combine with local factors. In the areas where these negative coupling effects occur, enhanced monitoring of both transboundary and local factors is essential to prevent adverse effects.