Abstract
BACKGROUND: Autochthonous transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi, the primary agent of Lyme disease in dogs and people in North America, commonly occurs in the northeastern United States, including the New York City metropolitan area, a region with a large human and pet population and broadly diverse demographics and habitats. METHODS: We evaluated results from a specific, C6-based serologic assay performed on 234,633 canine samples to compare evidence of past or current infection with B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto) in dogs to county-wide social and environmental factors, as well as to reported cases of Lyme disease in people. RESULTS: The data revealed a wide range of county level percent positive canine test results (1.2-27.3%) and human case reports (0.5-438.7 case reports/100,000 people). Dogs from highly (> 50%) forested areas and counties with lower population density had the highest percent positive test results, at 21.1% and 17.9%, respectively. Canine percent positive tests correlated with population-adjusted human case reports (R(2) = 0.48, P < 0.0001), as well as population density, development intensity, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, and habitat type. Subsequent multiple regression allowed an accurate prediction of infection risk in dogs (R(2) = 0.90) but was less accurate at predicting human case reports (R(2) = 0.74). CONCLUSION: In areas where Lyme disease is endemic, canine serology continues to provide insight into risk factors for transmission to both dogs and people although some differences in geographic patterns of canine infection and human disease reports are evident.